2 Scenarios

We developed ten scenarios defined as the area used for the calculation of the caribou umbrella index: from 5% to 95% of the study area excluding water, in 10% increments. With landbirds density on water pixels being equal to zero, we excluded these pixels from BCUI assessment.

2.1 Scenario 5%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 5%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.2 Scenario 15%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 15%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.3 Scenario 25%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 25%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.4 Scenario 35%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 35%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.5 Scenario 45%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 45%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.6 Scenario 55%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 55%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.7 Scenario 65%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 65%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.8 Scenario 75%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 75%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.9 Scenario 85%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 85%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.

2.10 Scenario 95%

Boxplot showing minimum and maximum (vertical lines), median (horizontal line), interquartile range (IQR, colored box), as well as outliers (black points) of boreal caribou umbrella indices (BCUI) by landbird habitat association calculated across time (2011 - 2091), climate projections (CanESM2, CCSM4 and INM-CM4) and replicates (n = 5), as well as the weighted average across these (in grey dashed line) for Scenario 95%. The average is weighted based on the number of species in each group.